BSP’s Lone Battle in UP Hampers INDIA Bloc’s Prospects in Lok Sabha Polls

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NEW DELHI—The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which contested the 2024 Lok Sabha elections independently, dealt a significant blow to the opposition INDIA bloc’s chances in 16 constituencies across Uttar Pradesh. Despite failing to secure any seats, the BSP garnered more votes than the winning margins in these constituencies, inadvertently benefiting the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies.

Political analysts argue that had the BSP joined forces with the INDIA alliance, which sought to dislodge the BJP and protect democratic principles, the opposition could have won these crucial seats. The lack of an electoral alliance allowed the BJP to maintain its foothold in the state.

Impact of BSP’s Independent Stance

The BSP’s decision to contest alone has been interpreted by many as a strategic move that fractured the anti-BJP vote, primarily affecting the Muslim and Dalit voter base. The Election Commission of India’s data supports this view, revealing that in 16 key constituencies, the votes secured by BSP candidates exceeded the margins by which BJP candidates won. This division of votes effectively weakened the INDIA bloc’s position and played into the BJP’s hands.

Speculations on Mayawati’s Motives

Speculation surrounds BSP leader Mayawati’s choice to go solo, with some experts suggesting that legal pressures may have influenced her decision. Mayawati is currently embroiled in a disproportionate assets case and faces several corruption allegations. Observers believe that aligning with the BJP might have been a tactical decision to avoid legal repercussions, much like the fates of other political figures such as Lalu Prasad Yadav and Arvind Kejriwal.

Despite BJP’s controversial statements regarding potential constitutional changes and the abolition of reservations for Dalits, Mayawati did not ally with the INDIA bloc, which includes secular parties committed to safeguarding these reservations.

Reaction to Mayawati’s Comments on Muslim Voters

In the aftermath of the election results, Mayawati faced criticism for her remarks about the Muslim community. She asserted that Muslims had not supported BSP candidates, including Muslim nominees, and suggested that the party might refrain from fielding Muslim candidates in future elections. Critics argue that her comments reflect ingratitude towards a community that has historically supported her party and contributed to her previous tenures as Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh.

Mayawati’s statements have been viewed as an attempt to shift the blame for the BSP’s poor performance, rather than acknowledging the changing dynamics and eroding support within her core voter base.

Electoral Data Highlights BSP’s Spoiler Role

The BSP fielded a substantial number of Muslim candidates in Uttar Pradesh, aiming to attract Muslim voters. However, none of these candidates succeeded in winning a seat, and the party’s overall performance saw a significant decline. In Uttar Pradesh, where Muslims and Dalits constitute a significant portion of the electorate, the BSP’s vote share dropped to 9.39%, a sharp decrease from 19.77% in 2014.

In contrast, the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance performed strongly, securing 43 out of 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh, while the BJP and its allies won 36 seats. Analysis suggests that a BSP alliance with the INDIA bloc could have significantly altered this outcome, potentially giving the opposition control over up to 59 seats.

Constituencies Affected by BSP’s Independent Campaign

The constituencies where BSP’s votes exceeded the winning margins and affected INDIA bloc’s chances include ,

1. Akbarpur: BJP’s Devendra Singh defeated SP’s Rajaram Pal by 44,345 votes. BSP’s Rajesh Kumar Dwivedi received 73,140 votes.
2. Aligarh: BJP’s Satish Kumar Gautam won over SP’s Bijendra Singh by 15,647 votes, with BSP’s Hitendra Kumar securing 123,929 votes.
3. Amroha: BJP’s Kanwar Singh Tanwar beat Congress’ Kunwar Danish Ali by 28,670 votes, while BSP’s Mujahid Husain got 164,099 votes.
4. Bansgaon: BJP’s Kamlesh Paswan defeated Congress’ Sadal Prasad by 3,150 votes, with BSP’s Ramsamujh obtaining 64,750 votes.
5. Bhadohi: BJP’s Dr. Vinod Kumar Bind triumphed over Trinamool Congress’ Laliteshpati Tripathi by 44,072 votes, with BSP’s Harishankar receiving 155,053 votes.
6. Bijnor: NDA’s Chandan Chauhan won over SP’s Deepak by 37,508 votes, with BSP’s Vijender Singh getting 218,986 votes.
7. Deoria: BJP’s Shashank Mani beat Congress’ Akhilesh Pratap Singh by 34,842 votes, while BSP’s Sandesh got 45,564 votes.
8. Farrukhabad: BJP’s Mukesh Rajput defeated SP’s Dr. Naval Kishor Shakya by 2,678 votes, with BSP’s Kranti Pandey receiving 45,390 votes.
9. Fatehpur Sikri: BJP’s Rajkumar Chahar won over Congress’ Ramnath Singh Sikarwar by 43,405 votes, with BSP’s Pandit Ramniwas Sharma getting 120,539 votes.
10. Hardoi: BJP’s Jai Prakash defeated SP’s Usha Verma by 27,856 votes, with BSP’s Bhimrao Ambedkar receiving 122,629 votes.
11. Meerut: BJP’s Arun Govil beat SP’s Dalit candidate Sunita Verma by 10,585 votes, while BSP’s Devvrat Kumar Tyagi secured 87,025 votes.
12. Mirzapur: NDA’s Anupriya Patel won over SP’s Ramesh Chand Bind by 37,810 votes, with BSP’s Manish Kumar receiving 144,446 votes.
13. Misrikh: BJP’s Ashok Kumar Rawat defeated SP’s Sangita Rajvanshi by 33,406 votes, with BSP’s B. R. Ahirwar getting 111,945 votes.
14. Phulpur: BJP’s Praveen Patel beat SP’s Amar Nath Singh Maurya by 4,332 votes, with BSP’s Jagannath Pal getting 82,586 votes.
15. Shahjahanpur: BJP’s Arun Kumar Sagar defeated SP’s Jyotsna Gond by 55,379 votes, with BSP’s Dod Ram Verma receiving 91,710 votes.
16. Unnao: BJP’s Swami Sachchidanand Hari Sakshi, known as Sakshi Maharaj, defeated SP’s Annu Tandon by 35,818 votes, with BSP’s Ashok Kumar Pandey receiving 72,527 votes.

The data clearly illustrates the critical role the BSP played in dividing the vote, ultimately aiding the BJP’s electoral success in these key battlegrounds.

Courtesy: Indiatomorrow.net