OPINION – Looking at Israel from Rafah: Collisions looming between Netanyahu and his opponents

On May 27, the sun rose over burnt tents and charred corpses in Al-Mawasi, Rafah. It had earlier been declared a “safe zone” by the occupying Israeli army for the surviving Gazans fleeing death and starvation for 234 days. The gravity of the situation escalated after the Israel army’s shelling of a Gazan refugee camp, leading Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to admit, for the first time since the start of the Israeli offensive in Gaza, that the attack was a “tragic mistake.” There is space to question whether the Israeli premier viewed this as a tragic or strategic error, especially given the timing of the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) application for an arrest warrant against him for Israeli war crimes in Gaza. The massacre in Rafah says a lot about the furious collisions among Israeli politicians and sheds light on why the Israeli offensive in Gaza continued for so long with such a heavy toll on Gazans.

Circle getting smaller for Netanyahu

While Netanyahu described the Rafah attack as tragic, the Israeli army accused Hamas of storing ammunition near the camp that was hit and denied any involvement in the first instance. Israeli ultra-nationalists were reportedly jubilant about the deadly fire in Rafah, likening it to the traditional bonfire lighting on the Jewish holiday Lag Ba Omer. In the midst of these developments, there has been a rise in unrest against Netanyahu over his disregard for the lives of reserve soldiers and hostages. Israeli mothers are on the streets calling for an end to the war, while left-wing Israelis are calling Benny Gantz, Netanyahu’s tough partner in his War Cabinet, to withdraw and bring an end to Netanyahu’s survival game. Israel now appears more fragmented than ever.

Not all is quiet on the political front. While the massacre in Gaza intensifies, the strained relationship between Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is taking a new direction. A video making the rounds on Israeli social media shows a reserve soldier stationed in Gaza threatening the military’s top brass. The soldier proclaims that he and a large group of reservists, totaling around 100,000, are loyal to Netanyahu and will remain in Gaza until the very end under his command. The video was revealed to be fabricated and spread by supporters of Netanyahu on X. In the midst of Gallant’s accusations of Netanyahu’s vague Gaza plan, the prime minister appears to be seeking ways to galvanize his right-wing supporters against his defense minister and other army-retired political figures like Benny Gantz. His political enemies view the current collision course as a potential catalyst for a civil war in Israel.

Tensions between Netanyahu and the generals predates Oct. 7. First, Israel’s most right-wing government so far came to power in December 2022 under Netanyahu. Soon after, he launched a bid to overhaul the judiciary to limit the powers of Israel’s Supreme Court, igniting tensions between the defense establishment and government. The reforms faced resistance from military reservists, notably reserve pilots, in the protests. Netanyahu, predictably, did not retreat, further fraying the relationship between the Israeli defense establishment and the prime minister. The Oct. 7 attacks occurred at a time when the defense establishment did not want Netanyahu to remain prime minister. The ongoing debates center around the army’s failure to provide Netanyahu with enough intelligence about the Hamas attack, leading to rumors about military chiefs plotting against him. The public is still missing the precise factors behind the Israeli intelligence failure surrounding Oct. 7. On the other hand, it is a fact that another silent war was taking place in the Israeli political realm. The weeks since Oct. 7 have become a race for political survival for Netanyahu in an environment where he was politically seen as a persona non grata.

How do all these relate to the massacres in Gaza and Rafah?

Since the outset, the assaults on Gaza have revolved around preserving Netanyahu’s political tenure. The continuation of the war in Gaza and its gradually becoming more brutal, helped him salvage his political charisma to an extent. However, the war between the defense establishment and Netanyahu, taking place behind the scenes, is still going on. While Netanyahu’s Likud party seems to be recovering from the Oct. 7 failure, opponents like Gantz and Gallant are pushing for his demise, knowing it might soon be too late. They appear to support setting a certain date for the end of the Israeli occupation in Gaza in alignment with US President Joe Biden’s expectations and while no longer allowing Netanyahu to use it as a token for political survival. For Netanyahu, each day of the war in Gaza provides him further justification to silence the opposition, including the families of hostages, and marginalize his opponents from Israel’s broad political spectrum.

Following the application of the ICC, Netanyahu’s diplomatic standing has weakened further due to the fallout from the Rafah massacre, leaving him with limited options on the global stage. The main party responsible for the attack seems to be the Israeli military, even though they deny it. Escalating political conflicts in Israel are transforming Gaza into a more violent battleground, with incidents like the massacres in Rafah being dismissed as mere “tragic mishaps” in statements released by Israel and its supporters.